A public Kalshi log
A proprietary weather forecasting model with strict filtering. Today's pick goes live at 12:05pm CT — the moment our trade hits Kalshi.
Occasional updates by email. Daily picks live on this site, Discord, and X.
Today's noon batch
Published 12:05pm CT — the moment our noon trade window closes on Kalshi. Featured pick has the strongest edge of the slate. Intraday additions through 4:45pm CT are a Discord exclusive — not posted to the site or to @sweetbracket.
No noon picks today
Discipline over activity. A day with no picks is the strategy working as designed — better to skip than force a marginal trade. Intraday additions through 4:45pm CT (if any qualify) post to Discord only.
Track record
Live picks publish at 12:05pm CT — the moment the trade hits Kalshi. Full forecast vs actual is shown here the next morning at 9am CT after settlement, every miss and every hit.
| Date | Market | Pick | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/28 | Denver · High | NO 90-91° | 92–96° | 94° | won |
| 6/28 | Atlanta · High | NO 98°+ | 90–93° | 94° | won |
| 6/26 | Atlanta · High | NO 93-94° | 86–89° | 91° | won |
| 6/24 | Minneapolis · High | NO 81°+ | 74–77° | 79° | won |
| 6/24 | DC · High | NO 87°+ | 81–84° | 85° | won |
| 6/23 | Atlanta · High | NO 87-88° | 78–82° | 84° | won |
| 6/23 | Chicago · High | NO 76-77° | 69–74° | 73° | won |
| 6/23 | DC · High | NO 79-80° | 72–76° | 74° | won |
| 6/22 | Chicago · High | NO 74-75° | 69–72° | 73° | won |
| 6/21 | SanAntonio · High | NO 95-96° | 88–92° | 91° | won |
| 6/21 | Los Angeles · High | NO 73-74° | 69–74° | 71° | won |
| 6/18 | Minneapolis · High | NO 75-76° | 68–72° | 73° | won |
| 6/16 | Minneapolis · High | NO 76-77° | 71–74° | 74° | won |
| 6/16 | DC · High | NO 84-85° | 78–82° | 81° | won |
| 6/13 | DC · High | NO 93°+ | 88–92° | 90° | won |
| 6/13 | Philadelphia · High | NO 93-94° | 87–90° | 90° | won |
| 6/12 | Austin · High | NO 96-97° | 89–94° | 95° | won |
| 6/12 | DC · High | NO 103°+ | 95–99° | 100° | won |
| 6/12 | DC · High | NO 101-102° | 94–99° | 100° | won |
| 6/12 | SanAntonio · High | NO 94-95° | 88–92° | 93° | won |
| 6/12 | Seattle · High | NO 77-78° | 68–73° | 74° | won |
| 6/12 | Miami · High | NO 92-93° | 86–90° | 91° | won |
| 6/12 | Minneapolis · High | NO 82-83° | 76–79° | 82° | lost |
| 6/12 | Philadelphia · High | NO 98-99° | 91–96° | 98° | lost |
| 6/12 | Chicago · High | NO 83-84° | 77–81° | 82° | won |
| 6/11 | Denver · High | NO 80-81° | 74–79° | 77° | won |
| 6/11 | Phoenix · High | NO 109-110° | 105–108° | 108° | won |
| 6/11 | SanAntonio · High | NO 95-96° | 90–94° | 93° | won |
| 6/11 | Miami · High | NO 91-92° | 85–89° | 90° | won |
| 6/11 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 100°+ | 93–97° | 95° | won |
| 6/11 | Philadelphia · High | NO 98-99° | 91–95° | 97° | won |
| 6/10 | SanAntonio · High | NO 95-96° | 90–93° | 93° | won |
| 6/10 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 98-99° | 92–95° | 95° | won |
| 6/10 | Dallas · High | NO 96-97° | 91–94° | 94° | won |
| 6/9 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 97°+ | 90–94° | 95° | won |
| 6/9 | Minneapolis · High | NO 92-93° | 86–90° | 89° | won |
| 6/9 | Dallas · High | NO 96-97° | 89–93° | 92° | won |
| 6/9 | Seattle · High | NO 65-66° | 59–63° | 63° | won |
| 6/8 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 99°+ | 90–94° | 96° | won |
| 6/8 | SanAntonio · High | NO 94-95° | 85–90° | 91° | won |
| 6/8 | Minneapolis · High | NO 85-86° | 79–84° | 85° | lost |
| 6/8 | Dallas · High | NO 96-97° | 90–94° | 95° | won |
| 6/7 | Minneapolis · High | NO 90-91° | 85–88° | 89° | won |
| 6/7 | Phoenix · High | NO 106-107° | 100–103° | 103° | won |
| 6/7 | Houston · High | NO 90-91° | 85–88° | 86° | won |
| 6/7 | Philadelphia · High | NO 92-93° | 84–87° | 90° | won |
| 6/7 | Las Vegas · High | NO 100-101° | 94–98° | 97° | won |
| 6/7 | Seattle · High | NO 67-68° | 61–65° | 65° | won |
| 6/5 | New Orleans · High | NO 89°+ | 81–86° | 87° | won |
| 6/5 | Phoenix · High | NO 109-110° | 104–107° | 108° | won |
| 6/5 | Philadelphia · High | NO 95-96° | 90–93° | 92° | won |
| 6/5 | Atlanta · High | NO 88-89° | 81–85° | 86° | won |
| 6/5 | Seattle · High | NO 65-66° | 59–63° | 63° | won |
| 6/5 | Miami · High | NO 87-88° | 80–84° | 85° | won |
| 6/4 | Atlanta · High | NO 86-87° | 78–82° | 82° | won |
| 6/4 | Miami · High | NO 87°+ | 79–82° | 85° | won |
| 6/3 | Minneapolis · High | NO 87-88° | 83–86° | 85° | won |
| 6/3 | Atlanta · High | NO 82°+ | 75–78° | 79° | won |
| 6/3 | Phoenix · High | NO 109-110° | 104–107° | 107° | won |
| 6/2 | Minneapolis · High | NO 86-87° | 81–84° | 84° | won |
| 6/2 | Phoenix · High | NO 107-108° | 101–104° | 104° | won |
| 6/2 | Philadelphia · High | NO 81°+ | 76–78° | 80° | won |
| 6/1 | Minneapolis · High | NO 84°+ | 75–80° | 80° | won |
| 6/1 | DC · High | NO 83°+ | 78–81° | 80° | won |
| 6/1 | Phoenix · High | NO 104-105° | 99–102° | 103° | won |
| 6/1 | Dallas · High | NO 97-98° | 91–96° | 94° | won |
| 6/1 | Minneapolis · High | NO 82-83° | 75–80° | 80° | won |
| 5/31 | Phoenix · High | NO 101-102° | 96–99° | 99° | won |
| 5/31 | Seattle · High | NO 70-71° | 63–67° | 68° | won |
| 5/31 | Philadelphia · High | NO 80-81° | 75–78° | 78° | won |
| 5/31 | Denver · High | NO 83-84° | 78–81° | 81° | won |
| 5/30 | Minneapolis · High | NO 86-87° | 80–84° | 84° | won |
| 5/30 | Miami · High | NO 89-90° | 84–87° | 87° | won |
| 5/30 | Denver · High | NO 79-80° | 72–77° | 77° | won |
| 5/30 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 96-97° | 88–93° | 92° | won |
| 5/30 | Philadelphia · High | NO 72-73° | 67–70° | 71° | won |
| 5/29 | Atlanta · High | NO 85°+ | 75–80° | 84° | won |
| 5/29 | Dallas · High | NO 96-97° | 89–94° | 92° | won |
| 5/29 | Phoenix · High | NO 90-91° | 83–87° | 86° | won |
| 5/28 | Chicago · High | NO 74°+ | 68–73° | 72° | won |
| 5/28 | Atlanta · High | NO 89°+ | 81–85° | 88° | won |
| 5/28 | SanAntonio · High | NO 92-93° | 86–90° | 89° | won |
| 5/28 | Philadelphia · High | NO 82-83° | 74–79° | 80° | won |
| 5/28 | Las Vegas · High | NO 84-85° | 78–81° | 83° | won |
| 5/28 | Phoenix · High | NO 95-96° | 88–91° | 92° | won |
| 5/28 | DC · High | NO 83°+ | 77–81° | 82° | won |
| 5/27 | Phoenix · High | NO 97-98° | 91–95° | 96° | won |
| 5/27 | Atlanta · High | NO 88°+ | 80–85° | 85° | won |
| 5/26 | Las Vegas · High | NO 92-93° | 87–91° | 91° | won |
| 5/26 | Denver · High | NO 81-82° | 76–79° | 80° | won |
| 5/25 | Dallas · High | NO 89-90° | 82–87° | 88° | won |
| 5/25 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 89-90° | 84–87° | 87° | won |
| 5/25 | Phoenix · High | NO 101-102° | 94–97° | 98° | won |
| 5/25 | Atlanta · High | NO 84-85° | 75–81° | 80° | won |
| 5/25 | Chicago · High | NO 86-87° | 81–84° | 84° | won |
| 5/24 | Phoenix · High | NO 101-102° | 96–99° | 100° | won |
| 5/24 | Minneapolis · High | NO 84-85° | 77–82° | 83° | won |
| 5/24 | Atlanta · High | NO 88°+ | 75–81° | 84° | won |
| 5/24 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 87°+ | 81–85° | 84° | won |
| 5/24 | Atlanta · High | NO 86-87° | 75–81° | 84° | won |
| 5/23 | Las Vegas · High | NO 98-99° | 92–95° | 95° | won |
| 5/22 | Atlanta · High | NO 89°+ | 80–86° | 88° | won |
| 5/22 | New York · High | NO 69-70° | 64–68° | 68° | won |
| 5/22 | Chicago · High | NO 72°+ | 64–69° | 67° | won |
| 5/22 | Denver · High | NO 68°+ | 60–64° | 64° | won |
| 5/21 | Atlanta · High | NO 89-90° | 79–85° | 89° | lost |
| 5/21 | Minneapolis · High | NO 68-69° | 62–65° | 66° | won |
| 5/20 | DC · High | NO 98-99° | 93–97° | 96° | won |
| 5/20 | Chicago · High | NO 63-64° | 59–61° | 61° | won |
| 5/20 | Atlanta · High | NO 92-93° | 85–88° | 91° | won |
| 5/20 | Seattle · High | NO 70-71° | 63–67° | 68° | won |
| 5/20 | Miami · High | NO 90-91° | 83–88° | 88° | won |
| 5/19 | Phoenix · High | NO 94-95° | 88–91° | 91° | won |
| 5/19 | Philadelphia · High | NO 100-101° | 94–98° | 98° | won |
| 5/18 | Las Vegas · High | NO 78-79° | 73–76° | 76° | won |
| 5/18 | Phoenix · High | NO 90-91° | 85–89° | 87° | won |
| 5/18 | Dallas · High | NO 94-95° | 88–91° | 91° | won |
| 5/18 | Atlanta · High | NO 91-92° | 86–89° | 87° | won |
| 5/17 | Miami · High | NO 89-90° | 82–88° | 87° | won |
| 5/17 | Atlanta · High | NO 92°+ | 83–88° | 90° | won |
| 5/17 | Phoenix · High | NO 97-98° | 91–94° | 96° | won |
Showing 121 settled picks. Scroll within the table to view all.
117–4 · 97% hit rate · +19.1% ROI
How it works
Each morning, the system generates a proprietary blended forecast for every tracked city — combining multiple authoritative weather sources, weighted by their recent accuracy at that location and time of year. The forecast refines through the morning as new observations come in.
At the noon CT trade window, current forecasts are compared against live Kalshi bracket prices. A pick is only published if the modeled edge falls in the +1% to +7% range AND it survives a strict multi-stage filter chain. Bigger claimed edges usually contain hidden risk — forecast overconfidence, settlement disputes, illiquidity. We pass on them.
The discipline is small, repeatable edges. One trade a day, compounded across hundreds of brackets. Position sizing is dynamic and capped to avoid concentrated exposure. The specifics of which sources, which filters, and which sizing rules stay private. That's the work.
Numbers
Settled picks
121
Win rate
97%
Avg edge
+3.6%
Bankroll ROI
+19.1%
All four stats update automatically every time a contract settles. Bankroll ROI is the cumulative return on starting capital since the public record began. Every settled pick — wins and losses — appears in the archive above.
Who
Sweet Bracket is written and operated by @sweetbracket — a disciplined Kalshi weather analysis that's been running privately for months.
This site is the public version: every qualifying pick, posted in real time, with results published the next morning after settlement. The goal is a clean, honest, falsifiable public track record.
Follow:@sweetbracket·Discord
Questions
A daily public log of Kalshi bracket picks generated by an automated forecasting system. We start with weather brackets because that's where the system is most proven. Posted every day at 12:05pm CT — the moment our trade hits Kalshi.
No. Everything published here is educational analysis of public markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research. Never bet money you can't afford to lose.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market where users trade event contracts (yes/no questions like 'Will Austin hit 85°F today?'). Brackets are temperature ranges you can buy YES or NO on.
A proprietary forecasting model blends multiple authoritative weather sources, weighted by their recent accuracy. Every candidate pick runs through a strict filter chain. A pick only publishes if the modeled edge over the market falls in the +1% to +7% range AND it survives every gate. The specifics of which sources and which filters stay private.
Because they're the realistic ones. In Kalshi weather markets, claimed edges above 10% almost always contain hidden risk — forecast overconfidence, settlement-rule ambiguity, or illiquid brackets that won't fill at the quoted price. We've watched the bigger 'wow' picks blow up. The math of compounding small consistent edges beats chasing big infrequent ones. Disciplined daily trades. That's it.
Right now: rarely. The daily picks flow through this site, Discord, and X — no daily email cadence yet. You'll get a welcome email when you subscribe and the occasional update about big milestones or the eventual paid-tier launch. No inbox spam. If you want every pick the moment it fires, follow Discord.
Eventually. Not until there's a meaningful sample of public results — likely 60–90 days from launch. The free daily feed will stay free forever.
Three live channels and one for updates. (1) Discord has the full feed — every pick, every intraday addition through 4:45pm CT, results. (2) X (@sweetbracket) gets the daily noon batch and the morning results recap. (3) This site shows the noon batch live and the full settled archive. (4) Email is for occasional updates only — subscribe above and you'll hear from us when something matters. For the live picks, use Discord.