Publishing at 12:05pm CT
Today's picks publish shortly.
We trade live at noon CT. The day's noon batch — featured pick plus the rest of the slate — appears here within 5 minutes of our order hitting Kalshi.
A public Kalshi log
Daily edge on
Kalshi brackets.
A proprietary weather forecasting model with strict filtering. Today's pick goes live at 12:05pm CT — the moment our trade hits Kalshi.
Occasional updates by email. Daily picks live on this site, Discord, and X.
Today's noon batch
Today's picks
Published 12:05pm CT — the moment our noon trade window closes on Kalshi. Featured pick has the strongest edge of the slate. Intraday additions through 4:45pm CT are a Discord exclusive — not posted to the site or to @sweetbracket.
Track record
Settled picks
Live picks publish at 12:05pm CT — the moment the trade hits Kalshi. Full forecast vs actual is shown here the next morning at 9am CT after settlement, every miss and every hit.
| Date | Market | Pick | Forecast | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/4 | Denver · High | NO 93°+ | 85–90° | 91° | won |
| 6/28 | Denver · High | NO 90-91° | 92–96° | 94° | won |
| 6/28 | Atlanta · High | NO 98°+ | 90–93° | 94° | won |
| 6/26 | Atlanta · High | NO 93-94° | 86–89° | 91° | won |
| 6/24 | Minneapolis · High | NO 81°+ | 74–77° | 79° | won |
| 6/24 | DC · High | NO 87°+ | 81–84° | 85° | won |
| 6/23 | Atlanta · High | NO 87-88° | 78–82° | 84° | won |
| 6/23 | Chicago · High | NO 76-77° | 69–74° | 73° | won |
| 6/23 | DC · High | NO 79-80° | 72–76° | 74° | won |
| 6/22 | Chicago · High | NO 74-75° | 69–72° | 73° | won |
| 6/21 | SanAntonio · High | NO 95-96° | 88–92° | 91° | won |
| 6/21 | Los Angeles · High | NO 73-74° | 69–74° | 71° | won |
| 6/18 | Minneapolis · High | NO 75-76° | 68–72° | 73° | won |
| 6/16 | Minneapolis · High | NO 76-77° | 71–74° | 74° | won |
| 6/16 | DC · High | NO 84-85° | 78–82° | 81° | won |
| 6/13 | DC · High | NO 93°+ | 88–92° | 90° | won |
| 6/13 | Philadelphia · High | NO 93-94° | 87–90° | 90° | won |
| 6/12 | Austin · High | NO 96-97° | 89–94° | 95° | won |
| 6/12 | DC · High | NO 103°+ | 95–99° | 100° | won |
| 6/12 | DC · High | NO 101-102° | 94–99° | 100° | won |
| 6/12 | SanAntonio · High | NO 94-95° | 88–92° | 93° | won |
| 6/12 | Seattle · High | NO 77-78° | 68–73° | 74° | won |
| 6/12 | Miami · High | NO 92-93° | 86–90° | 91° | won |
| 6/12 | Minneapolis · High | NO 82-83° | 76–79° | 82° | lost |
| 6/12 | Philadelphia · High | NO 98-99° | 91–96° | 98° | lost |
| 6/12 | Chicago · High | NO 83-84° | 77–81° | 82° | won |
| 6/11 | Denver · High | NO 80-81° | 74–79° | 77° | won |
| 6/11 | Phoenix · High | NO 109-110° | 105–108° | 108° | won |
| 6/11 | SanAntonio · High | NO 95-96° | 90–94° | 93° | won |
| 6/11 | Miami · High | NO 91-92° | 85–89° | 90° | won |
| 6/11 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 100°+ | 93–97° | 95° | won |
| 6/11 | Philadelphia · High | NO 98-99° | 91–95° | 97° | won |
| 6/10 | SanAntonio · High | NO 95-96° | 90–93° | 93° | won |
| 6/10 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 98-99° | 92–95° | 95° | won |
| 6/10 | Dallas · High | NO 96-97° | 91–94° | 94° | won |
| 6/9 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 97°+ | 90–94° | 95° | won |
| 6/9 | Minneapolis · High | NO 92-93° | 86–90° | 89° | won |
| 6/9 | Dallas · High | NO 96-97° | 89–93° | 92° | won |
| 6/9 | Seattle · High | NO 65-66° | 59–63° | 63° | won |
| 6/8 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 99°+ | 90–94° | 96° | won |
| 6/8 | SanAntonio · High | NO 94-95° | 85–90° | 91° | won |
| 6/8 | Minneapolis · High | NO 85-86° | 79–84° | 85° | lost |
| 6/8 | Dallas · High | NO 96-97° | 90–94° | 95° | won |
| 6/7 | Minneapolis · High | NO 90-91° | 85–88° | 89° | won |
| 6/7 | Phoenix · High | NO 106-107° | 100–103° | 103° | won |
| 6/7 | Houston · High | NO 90-91° | 85–88° | 86° | won |
| 6/7 | Philadelphia · High | NO 92-93° | 84–87° | 90° | won |
| 6/7 | Las Vegas · High | NO 100-101° | 94–98° | 97° | won |
| 6/7 | Seattle · High | NO 67-68° | 61–65° | 65° | won |
| 6/5 | New Orleans · High | NO 89°+ | 81–86° | 87° | won |
| 6/5 | Phoenix · High | NO 109-110° | 104–107° | 108° | won |
| 6/5 | Philadelphia · High | NO 95-96° | 90–93° | 92° | won |
| 6/5 | Atlanta · High | NO 88-89° | 81–85° | 86° | won |
| 6/5 | Seattle · High | NO 65-66° | 59–63° | 63° | won |
| 6/5 | Miami · High | NO 87-88° | 80–84° | 85° | won |
| 6/4 | Atlanta · High | NO 86-87° | 78–82° | 82° | won |
| 6/4 | Miami · High | NO 87°+ | 79–82° | 85° | won |
| 6/3 | Minneapolis · High | NO 87-88° | 83–86° | 85° | won |
| 6/3 | Atlanta · High | NO 82°+ | 75–78° | 79° | won |
| 6/3 | Phoenix · High | NO 109-110° | 104–107° | 107° | won |
| 6/2 | Minneapolis · High | NO 86-87° | 81–84° | 84° | won |
| 6/2 | Phoenix · High | NO 107-108° | 101–104° | 104° | won |
| 6/2 | Philadelphia · High | NO 81°+ | 76–78° | 80° | won |
| 6/1 | Minneapolis · High | NO 84°+ | 75–80° | 80° | won |
| 6/1 | DC · High | NO 83°+ | 78–81° | 80° | won |
| 6/1 | Phoenix · High | NO 104-105° | 99–102° | 103° | won |
| 6/1 | Dallas · High | NO 97-98° | 91–96° | 94° | won |
| 6/1 | Minneapolis · High | NO 82-83° | 75–80° | 80° | won |
| 5/31 | Phoenix · High | NO 101-102° | 96–99° | 99° | won |
| 5/31 | Seattle · High | NO 70-71° | 63–67° | 68° | won |
| 5/31 | Philadelphia · High | NO 80-81° | 75–78° | 78° | won |
| 5/31 | Denver · High | NO 83-84° | 78–81° | 81° | won |
| 5/30 | Minneapolis · High | NO 86-87° | 80–84° | 84° | won |
| 5/30 | Miami · High | NO 89-90° | 84–87° | 87° | won |
| 5/30 | Denver · High | NO 79-80° | 72–77° | 77° | won |
| 5/30 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 96-97° | 88–93° | 92° | won |
| 5/30 | Philadelphia · High | NO 72-73° | 67–70° | 71° | won |
| 5/29 | Atlanta · High | NO 85°+ | 75–80° | 84° | won |
| 5/29 | Dallas · High | NO 96-97° | 89–94° | 92° | won |
| 5/29 | Phoenix · High | NO 90-91° | 83–87° | 86° | won |
| 5/28 | Chicago · High | NO 74°+ | 68–73° | 72° | won |
| 5/28 | Atlanta · High | NO 89°+ | 81–85° | 88° | won |
| 5/28 | SanAntonio · High | NO 92-93° | 86–90° | 89° | won |
| 5/28 | Philadelphia · High | NO 82-83° | 74–79° | 80° | won |
| 5/28 | Las Vegas · High | NO 84-85° | 78–81° | 83° | won |
| 5/28 | Phoenix · High | NO 95-96° | 88–91° | 92° | won |
| 5/28 | DC · High | NO 83°+ | 77–81° | 82° | won |
| 5/27 | Phoenix · High | NO 97-98° | 91–95° | 96° | won |
| 5/27 | Atlanta · High | NO 88°+ | 80–85° | 85° | won |
| 5/26 | Las Vegas · High | NO 92-93° | 87–91° | 91° | won |
| 5/26 | Denver · High | NO 81-82° | 76–79° | 80° | won |
| 5/25 | Dallas · High | NO 89-90° | 82–87° | 88° | won |
| 5/25 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 89-90° | 84–87° | 87° | won |
| 5/25 | Phoenix · High | NO 101-102° | 94–97° | 98° | won |
| 5/25 | Atlanta · High | NO 84-85° | 75–81° | 80° | won |
| 5/25 | Chicago · High | NO 86-87° | 81–84° | 84° | won |
| 5/24 | Phoenix · High | NO 101-102° | 96–99° | 100° | won |
| 5/24 | Minneapolis · High | NO 84-85° | 77–82° | 83° | won |
| 5/24 | Atlanta · High | NO 88°+ | 75–81° | 84° | won |
| 5/24 | Oklahoma City · High | NO 87°+ | 81–85° | 84° | won |
| 5/24 | Atlanta · High | NO 86-87° | 75–81° | 84° | won |
| 5/23 | Las Vegas · High | NO 98-99° | 92–95° | 95° | won |
| 5/22 | Atlanta · High | NO 89°+ | 80–86° | 88° | won |
| 5/22 | New York · High | NO 69-70° | 64–68° | 68° | won |
| 5/22 | Chicago · High | NO 72°+ | 64–69° | 67° | won |
| 5/22 | Denver · High | NO 68°+ | 60–64° | 64° | won |
| 5/21 | Atlanta · High | NO 89-90° | 79–85° | 89° | lost |
| 5/21 | Minneapolis · High | NO 68-69° | 62–65° | 66° | won |
| 5/20 | DC · High | NO 98-99° | 93–97° | 96° | won |
| 5/20 | Chicago · High | NO 63-64° | 59–61° | 61° | won |
| 5/20 | Atlanta · High | NO 92-93° | 85–88° | 91° | won |
| 5/20 | Seattle · High | NO 70-71° | 63–67° | 68° | won |
| 5/20 | Miami · High | NO 90-91° | 83–88° | 88° | won |
| 5/19 | Phoenix · High | NO 94-95° | 88–91° | 91° | won |
| 5/19 | Philadelphia · High | NO 100-101° | 94–98° | 98° | won |
| 5/18 | Las Vegas · High | NO 78-79° | 73–76° | 76° | won |
| 5/18 | Phoenix · High | NO 90-91° | 85–89° | 87° | won |
| 5/18 | Dallas · High | NO 94-95° | 88–91° | 91° | won |
| 5/18 | Atlanta · High | NO 91-92° | 86–89° | 87° | won |
| 5/17 | Miami · High | NO 89-90° | 82–88° | 87° | won |
| 5/17 | Atlanta · High | NO 92°+ | 83–88° | 90° | won |
| 5/17 | Phoenix · High | NO 97-98° | 91–94° | 96° | won |
Showing 122 settled picks. Scroll within the table to view all.
118–4 · 97% hit rate · +19.1% ROI
How it works
Methodology
Each morning, the system generates a proprietary blended forecast for every tracked city — combining multiple authoritative weather sources, weighted by their recent accuracy at that location and time of year. The forecast refines through the morning as new observations come in.
At the noon CT trade window, current forecasts are compared against live Kalshi bracket prices. A pick is only published if the modeled edge falls in the +1% to +7% range AND it survives a strict multi-stage filter chain. Bigger claimed edges usually contain hidden risk — forecast overconfidence, settlement disputes, illiquidity. We pass on them.
The discipline is small, repeatable edges. One trade a day, compounded across hundreds of brackets. Position sizing is dynamic and capped to avoid concentrated exposure. The specifics of which sources, which filters, and which sizing rules stay private. That's the work.
- → Proprietary multi-source blended forecasts
- → Trade only when edge is +1% to +7%
- → Today's pick at 12:05pm CT, every day
- → Results published next day at 9:00am CT
Numbers
Results
Settled picks
122
Win rate
97%
Avg edge
+3.6%
Bankroll ROI
+19.1%
All four stats update automatically every time a contract settles. Bankroll ROI is the cumulative return on starting capital since the public record began. Every settled pick — wins and losses — appears in the archive above.
Who
About
Sweet Bracket is written and operated by @sweetbracket — a disciplined Kalshi weather analysis that's been running privately for months.
This site is the public version: every qualifying pick, posted in real time, with results published the next morning after settlement. The goal is a clean, honest, falsifiable public track record.
Follow:@sweetbracket·Discord
Questions
FAQ
What is Sweet Bracket?+
A daily public log of Kalshi bracket picks generated by an automated forecasting system. We start with weather brackets because that's where the system is most proven. Posted every day at 12:05pm CT — the moment our trade hits Kalshi.
Is this financial advice?+
No. Everything published here is educational analysis of public markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research. Never bet money you can't afford to lose.
What is Kalshi?+
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market where users trade event contracts (yes/no questions like 'Will Austin hit 85°F today?'). Brackets are temperature ranges you can buy YES or NO on.
How are the picks made?+
A proprietary forecasting model blends multiple authoritative weather sources, weighted by their recent accuracy. Every candidate pick runs through a strict filter chain. A pick only publishes if the modeled edge over the market falls in the +1% to +7% range AND it survives every gate. The specifics of which sources and which filters stay private.
Why such small edges? +1–7% doesn't sound like much.+
Because they're the realistic ones. In Kalshi weather markets, claimed edges above 10% almost always contain hidden risk — forecast overconfidence, settlement-rule ambiguity, or illiquid brackets that won't fill at the quoted price. We've watched the bigger 'wow' picks blow up. The math of compounding small consistent edges beats chasing big infrequent ones. Disciplined daily trades. That's it.
How often will I get emails?+
Right now: rarely. The daily picks flow through this site, Discord, and X — no daily email cadence yet. You'll get a welcome email when you subscribe and the occasional update about big milestones or the eventual paid-tier launch. No inbox spam. If you want every pick the moment it fires, follow Discord.
Will there be a paid tier?+
Eventually. Not until there's a meaningful sample of public results — likely 60–90 days from launch. The free daily feed will stay free forever.
How do I follow along?+
Three live channels and one for updates. (1) Discord has the full feed — every pick, every intraday addition through 4:45pm CT, results. (2) X (@sweetbracket) gets the daily noon batch and the morning results recap. (3) This site shows the noon batch live and the full settled archive. (4) Email is for occasional updates only — subscribe above and you'll hear from us when something matters. For the live picks, use Discord.